Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, a single real-world data point that determines this prediction market’s outcome. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% YES for the highest temperature range, implying the crowd believes the peak will fall below that threshold. This near-zero pricing is stark when weighed against historical July extremes in Hong Kong, where the highest monthly maximum since 1885 reached 35.7°C [1]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Hong Kong projects daily highs between 86°F and 93°F (roughly 30°C to 34°C), with an average high of 89°F (32°C) [2]. Recent data shows a peak of 91.6°F (33.1°C) recorded on 24 June 2026, just weeks prior [3]. Given that July is typically Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs of 89°F [6], a 0% probability for the top range appears inconsistent with long-term climatology unless the specific range in question is exceptionally high.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” is finalized and published [5]. The key catalyst is the official confirmation of the 10 July reading, which will be available via the Climatological Information Services portal once the Daily Extract is complete [5]. While no immediate weather announcements are expected for this specific date, the broader trend of rising temperatures in Hong Kong—evidenced by 2025 being the city’s sixth hottest year with 20 broken records [7]—suggests volatility in peak temperatures. On-chain mechanics mean USDC payouts on Polygon will execute automatically once the conditional token resolves, so timing the data release is critical. No speculative moralising is needed; the facts are that the resolution depends entirely on the Observatory’s finalized extract, and any delay in publication will postpone settlement until the data is confirmed [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.