Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting that settlement data has not yet been published and conditional tokens cannot yet be valued against actual Observatory readings. Once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure for that date in the Daily Extract, the market will resolve to whichever temperature band contains that single recorded value, and USDC payouts will execute on Polygon according to the winning range.

Hong Kong's July temperatures cluster predictably around 32–34°C on average, with historical extremes rarely exceeding 36°C even during heat waves. The Observatory's records show that daily maxima in mid-July typically fall within the 31–35°C band, though anomalous conditions—such as the 39.0°C recorded on 22 August 2023—remain possible but infrequent. Traders assessing probability distributions should reference the Observatory's 30-year climate normals and recent summer patterns rather than abstract seasonal assumptions.

The key dependency is the publication schedule of the Observatory's Daily Extract, which typically releases finalised data within days of the observation date. Tropical cyclone activity, monsoon shifts, or unusual high-pressure systems in early-to-mid July could materially shift outcomes, though such events would be visible in weather forecasts weeks beforehand. Traders should monitor the Observatory's official website and any tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in the fortnight preceding settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.