Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract providing the definitive “Absolute Daily Max” in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, the USDC-denominated pool on Polygon prices the 29°C outcome at 39% and 30°C at 28%, while the specific “YES” contract for an unlisted range sits at 0% implied probability, reflecting the market’s current confidence that the peak will fall within those two leading bands rather than an alternative bracket.

Historically, mid-July highs in Hong Kong cluster between 29°C and 33°C, with 29°C and 30°C appearing frequently in recent Daily Extracts; the 0% price on the unlisted range aligns with this pattern, as extreme outliers below 28°C or above 34°C are rare in summer. The frontrunner status of 29°C suggests traders are weighting typical maritime moderation and cloud cover over record-breaking heat, consistent with the Observatory’s long-term climatology for the period.

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s scheduled release of the 16 July Daily Extract, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max” and triggers settlement once published. Key catalysts include any official weather advisories on heatwaves or tropical cyclone signals issued by the Hong Kong Observatory before noon UTC, as these can shift cloud cover and wind patterns that directly affect peak temperatures. A recent forecast from the Observatory’s website notes elevated humidity and scattered showers for mid-July, which may cap the day’s maximum near the 29–30°C range [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.