Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 7 July 2026, with results published to one decimal place in the official Daily Extract. On Polymarket, this contract trades today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range defined by the market maker. This pricing reflects a market that has already digested the seasonal outlook, which forecasts normal to above-normal temperatures for July through September 2026, driven by the current ENSO status and climate model consensus[1].

Historical July data frames this probability against typical highs averaging 30.4°C to 31°C, with overnight lows near 26°C[2][9]. While the seasonal forecast hints at warmer conditions, the 0% price implies the specific range is either exceptionally high or the market expects a cooling anomaly, despite the general trend of above-normal heat. Traders should note that July climatology strongly supports minimum temperatures in the 26°C to 28°C band, making extreme maximums less likely unless a significant heatwave materializes[6].

Key catalysts include the Hong Kong Observatory’s scheduled release of the Daily Extract, which finalises the data for settlement, and any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns such as the cooling event noted for south China this weekend[4]. Traders must monitor the official forecast updates for 7 July, as the resolution depends entirely on the published "Absolute Daily Max" figure once the data is verified[5]. The market will not resolve until this official publication occurs, making the timing of the Daily Extract the primary dependency for any position adjustment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.