Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport station in Houston will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single data point that will settle a conditional token contract on Polymarket. Today, the market prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, reflecting a consensus that no specific temperature range currently meets the threshold for a positive bet, while the frontrunner outcome “84–85°F” carries a 43% implied probability and “82–83°F” sits at 24% [1]. These figures are expressed in USDC on the Polygon network, where traders hold and transfer shares of each temperature bracket as ERC-20 conditional tokens.

Historically, mid-July highs in Houston cluster between 82°F and 92°F, with 84–85°F a frequent outcome in recent years when cloud cover and marine influence moderate the heat. The current 43% weighting on that narrow band aligns with comparable summer patterns, suggesting the 0% “YES” price stems from the market’s binary framing rather than a belief that extreme cold is likely. In past July 15 readings, temperatures below 80°F are rare, while spikes above 95°F occur but are less common than the 82–86°F range.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast for Houston, particularly the 6 a.m. and 12 p.m. updates on 14–15 July, which detail expected cloud cover, dew points, and wind direction from the Gulf. A sudden shift toward low-level moisture or a marine push could compress the peak into the 82–85°F band, while a dry, high-pressure build would lift it toward 90°F+. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for KHOU, so any data gap or station anomaly would be the only non-weather catalyst affecting resolution.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.