Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will determine which range this contract settles into. The current Polymarket pricing shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical settlement issue, as historical data confirms the airport station reliably records daily highs. Traders accessing this market on Polygon via USDC will be purchasing conditional tokens tied to specific temperature ranges, with settlement contingent on Wunderground's historical weather database reflecting the actual recorded maximum for that date.

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily highs. Over the past decade, July temperatures at the airport station have ranged between 32–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C even during the Southwest Monsoon season. The 0% probability across all brackets suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery, rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will fall within typical ranges.

Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical records becoming available after 12:00 UTC on 19 July 2026. The platform's data for Malaysian stations has proven reliable, though traders should verify the specific station identifier (WMKK) matches Kuala Lumpur International Airport rather than alternative weather stations in the metropolitan area. No scheduled weather events or climate anomalies are forecast for mid-July 2026 that would substantially alter the seasonal baseline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.