Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles faces its peak summer heat on 12 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station determining the outcome of this weather contract. Polymarket prices the YES option at 0% today, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined for a winning trade, likely due to the range being set for extreme highs that are statistically improbable for KLAX on this date.

Historical data for mid-July at KLAX shows average highs around 76°F to 85°F, with long-term averages rarely exceeding 90°F unless a major heatwave intervenes [4][10]. While recent years have seen record-breaking events, such as a March 2026 heatwave that smashed records across the Southland [7], the typical July profile for the airport station remains moderate compared to inland valleys. The current 0% probability aligns with these baselines, suggesting traders view the contract’s threshold as unattainable under normal conditions.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Wunderground and NBC Los Angeles for any sudden heatwave announcements, as summer heat waves can shatter records and push temperatures above 110°F in surrounding valleys [2]. A key dependency is the official daily high reported for KLAX specifically, which often stays lower than inland readings due to coastal cooling. Watch for updates on the July 9, 2026 extreme heatwave narrative, which may influence expectations for the following week’s conditions [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.