Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract prices the chance of Los Angeles hitting any temperature above 81°F on 17 July 2026 at 0% YES, reflecting a near-certain market view that the day will stay cool. On Polymarket, traders are locking USDC on the Polygon network into conditional tokens that resolve based on the highest reading at the Los Angeles International Airport Station, sourced from Wunderground’s daily history. The frontrunner outcome is 80–81°F at 75%, with 78–79°F trailing at 12%, indicating the crowd expects a mild midsummer day rather than a heat spike [1].

Historical mid-July readings in LA typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, but the 0% YES price suggests the market sees no credible path to extreme heat this year. This aligns with the recent resolution of a similar July 4 market, where the contract correctly priced 74–75°F as the outcome, confirming the model’s reliability for early-summer LA temperatures [2]. The current pricing implies that even if a warm front moves in, it will likely cap out below the 82°F threshold required to trigger a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Southern California and any incoming Pacific marine layer announcements, which can suppress daytime highs. A sudden shift in wind patterns or a breakdown in the marine layer could act as a catalyst, though no such alerts are active as of late July 2026. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, so real-time Wunderground updates for KLAX will be the final arbiter of the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.