Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles recorded its highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at the Los Angeles International Airport Station, with the market now resolving to the specific Fahrenheit range containing that peak. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s certainty that the outcome falls within 80–81°F, assigning a 100% probability to that range while the “YES” option for other ranges sits at 0% [1].

Historical July heat in LA frames this pricing: the city hit 74–75°F on 4 July 2026, a result the market correctly predicted, and an extreme heatwave struck the region on 9 July 2026, pushing temperatures higher and prompting public health advisories to stay indoors during peak sun hours [2][3]. Given that mid-July heatwaves typically elevate LA’s daily maximums into the low 80s, the 80–81°F frontrunner aligns with recent patterns rather than outlier extremes.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history for KLAX, the official resolution source, as it publishes the day’s highest recorded temperature in real time [1]. No further announcements or schedules will alter the outcome; the market settles strictly on the recorded data once the window closes at 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z. With the event already past and the frontrunner locked at 100%, the on-chain price reflects near-total certainty, leaving minimal room for re-rating unless Wunderground revises its historical entry.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.