Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract priced with **36°C** and **37°C** as the leading outcomes, which is consistent with a market that expects a hot but not extreme day at Madrid-Barajas Airport. The market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station on 2 August 2026, so traders on Polygon are really pricing the airport observation, not a citywide average, and the winning conditional token will pay out against that specific Wunderground history page.

The broader context also points to a high, fairly tight distribution. Forecast coverage for Madrid on 2 August 2026 centred on clear or mostly clear skies, dry conditions and afternoon maxima around **35–36°C**, with some outlets nudging to **36°C** and others showing **35.6°C** or a broader **35–37°C** band.[1][2][4][5] That lines up with the market’s clustering around adjacent temperature buckets rather than a long tail into cooler outcomes. Long-run August weather in Madrid is hot by European standards, but not uniformly record-breaking, which helps explain why traders are splitting between nearby bins instead of pricing a single runaway outcome.[8][11]

For a Polymarket user, the practical catalysts are the same ones that move any weather book: updated airport observations, any late change in cloud cover or wind, and whether temperatures peak before the settlement window closes. Reuters reported Spain’s first official heatwave of 2026 in June, showing that the summer pattern has already supported strong thermal build-ups across the peninsula, but for this contract the decisive input remains the day’s recorded maximum at the airport rather than national headlines.[15] Because Polymarket settles via USDC on Polygon and each outcome is represented by conditional tokens, traders will usually watch the Wunderground daily history page for Madrid-Barajas until the first datapoint for the following date is published, after which revisions stop mattering for resolution.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.