Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, Madrid's highest temperature will be recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. The market currently prices at 0% YES, reflecting the crowd's assessment that the day will not fall into whichever temperature bracket this contract specifies. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, with the resolution source locked to a single monitoring station rather than city-wide averages, making micro-location weather patterns material to the outcome.

Madrid's July temperatures cluster consistently between 32–38°C, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing toward 40°C. The city recorded 40.5°C on 13 July 2022 during a broader European heatwave, and 39.6°C on 24 July 2023. Historical July data from Barajas Airport shows the station regularly logs highs in the 34–37°C range on typical summer days. The 0% pricing suggests traders are either confident the contract targets a temperature threshold well above typical July conditions, or that the specific range definition sits outside likely outcomes for that date.

European summer weather patterns in 2026 will depend on Atlantic pressure systems and potential heat dome formation across the continent. The UK Met Office and ECMWF seasonal outlooks, updated quarterly, provide guidance on whether July 2026 tracking toward above-normal or near-normal temperatures across southern Europe. Traders should monitor spring 2026 climate forecasts and any emerging La Niña or El Niño signals, which influence European summer jet stream positioning. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in early July 2026, roughly two weeks before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.