Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest air temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for late June in Manila shows daily highs consistently reaching 35–37°C, with the 2015 peak at 36.2°C and the 1993 record at 37.3°C[10]. Recent observations confirm this pattern, as Metro Manila hit 36.8°C on 21 June 2026, marking the hottest day of the year so far[9]. PAGASA’s short-range guidance for June 2026 forecasts a range of 25–33°C for actual air temperature, though apparent temperatures (heat index) may soar to 44°C[3]. The current market pricing on Polymarket, where USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects a 62% probability for 29°C and 30% for 30°C[1], yet the specific “YES” contract for the highest temperature being above a certain threshold sits at 0% implied probability, suggesting traders view the threshold as unattainable relative to the 29–31°C consensus[1].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily public weather forecasts issued at 5:00 AM UTC, which provide real-time updates on temperature trends and heat index warnings[8]. The UN’s recent report indicates global average temperatures will likely remain at record levels through 2030, with a 91% chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines between 2026 and 2030[5], reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures in Manila. Additionally, the heat index forecast for 30 May 2026 reached 44°C in Metro Manila, demonstrating the region’s vulnerability to extreme heat events that could push actual temperatures higher than seasonal averages[3]. On-chain settlement relies on Wunderground’s official daily high for Ninoy Aquino International Airport, so any discrepancies between forecasted and recorded data will directly impact resolution[1]. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-30T12:00:00Z, timely access to these forecasts is critical for assessing conditional token positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.