Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport and resolved against Wunderground's historical records. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bins, reflecting the distance of the event and typical pricing dynamics for weather contracts months in advance. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, with payouts distributed via USDC on Polygon conditional on the recorded high falling within whichever range resolves YES.

July is Mexico City's rainy season, with afternoon thunderstorms frequently tempering afternoon highs. Historical data from the airport station shows July highs typically range between 24–28°C, though extremes have reached 29–30°C during particularly dry or heat-wave years. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about which specific bin will resolve rather than genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded; traders entering positions now are essentially pricing in expected volatility and the difficulty of predicting a specific range six months ahead.

Traders should monitor Mexico City's seasonal weather patterns as July 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous heat or extended dry spells that could push temperatures toward the upper bins. The National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) publishes monthly climate outlooks that may indicate whether above-average temperatures are expected. Wunderground's historical data for the airport station is the binding source, so familiarity with its measurement methodology and any station maintenance schedules will be relevant for assessing settlement risk.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.