Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Miami temperature contract at 0% YES, which means traders are effectively assigning no weight to a settlement in the relevant bucket even though the market settles off the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport and paid in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. The practical reference point is the Wunderground daily history page for KMIA, with the contract resolving only after the first datapoint for the following day has been published.

For context, Miami in early August is normally hot, humid and prone to afternoon convection, so the shape of the day matters as much as the headline forecast. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows daily highs clustered around 87–89°F, and CBS News Miami said on 5 August that highs around 90°F were expected, which is the kind of range that usually anchors temperature markets. The current zero price therefore sits well below the weather outlook and below the nearby spot forecasts, which suggests either a stale contract price or a misread of the settlement mechanics rather than a view that Miami will be cool.

A trader watching this market should focus on the local forecast evolution, thunderstorm timing, and whether cloud cover or sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon maximum before the airport reading is locked in. The NWS Miami forecast page and related local reporting are the main short-term catalysts, because a one- or two-degree shift can move the result between adjacent bins on a contract that resolves strictly from the airport station’s recorded daily high. If the day runs close to forecast, the closing value will be driven by the peak observation rather than the morning temperature, so late-session trades can still matter if the market is thin.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Miami on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.