Highest temperature in Milan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Milan heat contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which means the crowd is treating the chance of a qualifying temperature band at Malpensa on 10 August as negligible for now. The market settles on the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, so the live intraday path matters more than the “Day High & Low” summary, and holders of the conditional tokens are effectively betting on where that table tops out by the settlement window.

That zero price sits against a climate profile that usually makes a high-teens-to-upper-20s Celsius reading in early August more typical than an extreme spike, but Milan can still produce hotter days when a warm air mass builds over northern Italy. Historical summaries for Milan show average August highs around 28–30°C, with occasional peaks well into the 30s, and recent forecast-style pages have at times put 10 August close to 37–38°C on nearby datasets, underscoring how sensitive this event is to the exact station and update cycle rather than the citywide average. For traders, the useful comparison is not whether Milan is “usually hot”, but whether Malpensa’s observed maximum crosses the specific resolution band before midday UTC.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast shifts, any late-summer Italian heatwave alerts, and the weather station’s own observation cadence. Weather Underground’s table can move on successive readings, so the key dependency is the final recorded maximum before the 12:00:00Z cutoff, not the broader daytime forecast. A trader should watch whether regional models and airport observations converge on a hotter-than-normal afternoon, because a late temperature update can change the outcome even after the market has already traded most of the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.