Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Munich heat contract at **1% YES**, which implies the crowd assigns only a small chance that the Munich Airport Station posts a top temperature in the relevant range before the market’s 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. On Polymarket, the position is held in **USDC** and settled through **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, so the payoff depends entirely on the Wunderground daily high recorded for the airport station, not on city-centre readings or forecasts elsewhere.

That 1% sits well below what Munich usually produces in early August. Long-run August normals cluster around the mid-20s Celsius for daytime highs, with average highs around **24°C to 25°C** and historical August records near **37°C to 38°C** in exceptionally hot years.[1][5] WeatherSpark shows the hottest part of Munich’s August climatology is early in the month, with average daily highs near **75°F** around 4 August, and daily highs still often reaching the low-to-mid 70s Fahrenheit later in the month.[2] In other words, a single-digit probability is mainly a bet against an unseasonably hot day at a specific station, rather than against August warmth in general.[1][2][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any convective or frontal changes in southern Germany, and whether Munich Airport sees localised afternoon heating or storm-cooled suppression. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook for Munich shows daily highs generally in the **69°F to 81°F** range, which is consistent with a modest but not negligible chance of a warm spike, especially if skies stay clear through the afternoon.[16] Because the market resolves only from the airport station’s observed daily maximum on Wunderground, the key dependency is not the city average but the exact station reading before the window closes.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.