Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature in Celsius, and this market resolves to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The crowd currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, suggesting either a technical issue with market initialisation or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately settle. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between automated sensor readings and processed forecasts.

Munich's August climate shows consistent patterns worth examining. Historical data from the past decade reveals daily highs in mid-August typically range between 24–28°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during heat waves. The 2022 European heat wave saw Munich reach 35°C in early August, whilst cooler years have produced highs around 20°C. These precedents suggest the market's current 0% pricing across all ranges reflects either incomplete bracket definitions or a settlement mechanism awaiting clarification rather than genuine equiprobability.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation and high-pressure systems over central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; anomalously warm or cool patterns emerging in late July will shift expectations materially. Additionally, any clarification from Polymarket regarding the specific temperature brackets available for settlement could trigger immediate repricing, as the current 0% across the board suggests the market interface may not yet display the full range of options.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.