Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's weather station will record the highest temperature on 15 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently prices at 0% YES, reflecting the conditional token structure on Polygon where traders hold USDC-denominated positions across temperature bands. This extreme pricing suggests the crowd expects either a specific temperature threshold to be breached or uncertainty about which band will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

August temperatures at Munich Airport historically range between 18°C and 28°C, with the station's 30-year mean high around 24°C. The airport's elevated position and inland continental climate mean summer heat waves can push readings into the low 30s, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. The 0% probability on the current band indicates traders are either confident the actual high will fall outside this range or are pricing in the technical risk that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table may show a different figure than preliminary reports, creating settlement ambiguity.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any heat dome formations across central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts in early August that typically narrow uncertainty bands. Settlement hinges entirely on Weather Underground's specific data capture methodology at Munich Airport, making historical discrepancies between that source and other official German weather records a material consideration for position sizing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.