Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market is currently pricing the chance of a Munich Airport Station maximum temperature falling into the listed winning range as effectively nil. Because the market settles against the single-day high recorded by Wunderground for 6 August 2026, traders are holding a conditional token position on a specific Celsius outcome rather than on “hot weather” in general, all margined in **USDC** on **Polygon**.

For context, Munich’s August climate is usually warm but not extreme: average highs are around 24–25°C, while the record August high for the city is 37.0°C, set on 13 August 2003.[1][14] The day-specific record climatology is less useful than the tails, because the contract resolves only if the airport station prints into one of the permitted ranges; that means a modest late-summer heat surge can matter even when the broader monthly average looks ordinary.[1][13] In the prediction-market frame, the current 0% price suggests traders see the target band as outside the plausible distribution, not merely unlikely.

The main catalysts are the same ones that can move any station-specific weather market: short-range forecast updates, any shift in the synoptic pattern over southern Germany, and the actual observed temperature trajectory during the settlement window. Since the market cannot resolve until after the daily maximum has been established at Munich Airport and then reported in Wunderground’s history feed, intraday revisions to forecast highs, cloud cover, and wind can matter more than long-range climate averages.[2][15] Users should also watch for any delay or mismatch in the station data feed, because the contract follows the resolution source rather than a city-wide estimate.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.