Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport is currently recording a high of 28°C on this Sunday, 12 July 2026, with sunny skies and a gentle breeze, meaning the market for any temperature bracket above this figure holds zero chance of resolving positively. The contract, settled on-chain via USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects this certainty with a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome on higher ranges, as the day’s peak is already effectively locked in by 4 PM local time.

Historical July data for Munich International Airport shows daily highs typically range between 22°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, with the average high sitting near 27°C [1][4]. The current reading aligns closely with the long-term mean, and the adjacent market for 11 July 2026 resolved at 30°C, suggesting today’s 28°C is a modest, expected fluctuation rather than an outlier [3]. This consistency frames the 0% crowd-implied probability as a rational assessment of meteorological norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the final Wunderground update for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes, as the resolution source requires the first published data point for the full day [2]. No further weather announcements are expected to alter the recorded maximum, given that the daily peak has already occurred under stable, sunny conditions reported by BBC Weather [7]. The market’s real-time odds will cease updating once the official dataset is published, finalising the payout in USDC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.