Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 at the Munich Airport Station is the real-world event this Polymarket contract prices, with the crowd currently assigning a 0% probability to the YES outcome. On the Polygon chain, traders use USDC to buy conditional tokens representing temperature ranges, and the market will settle automatically once Wunderground publishes the day’s peak reading for station EDDM.

Historically, mid-July in Munich rarely sees extreme heat, with average highs around 23–25°C and record highs on 15 July reaching 34.9°C in 2019, according to climate data for the region[1]. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market expects temperatures to fall well below the threshold defining the YES range, likely reflecting typical Bavarian summer conditions rather than an outlier heatwave.

Traders should monitor the European heat forecast for the week of 8–15 July, particularly any announcements from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) about sustained high-pressure systems over southern Germany. A sudden shift in the jet stream or an influx of Mediterranean air could act as a catalyst, though no such alerts have been issued as of this week, keeping the baseline expectation firmly in the moderate range.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.