Highest temperature in Munich on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles to whichever Celsius range captures that figure. The crowd currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability, reflecting the standard state of unresolved future weather contracts before meaningful data accumulates. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather database for EDDM (Munich Airport's ICAO code), with traders required to verify the reading through the platform's Fahrenheit-to-Celsius toggle.

Munich's July temperatures historically cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. The city experienced 35.2°C on 30 June 2019 and 34.1°C on 25 June 2022, establishing that late-July conditions can occasionally breach 30°C when Atlantic high-pressure systems stall over Central Europe. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market awaits either seasonal forecasts or real-time weather model convergence to generate meaningful conditional token valuations on Polygon.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July onwards, particularly outputs from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) and ECMWF ensemble models, which typically show reliable skill 10–14 days ahead. Anomalous heat patterns or blocking highs over the continent would shift probability mass toward higher temperature bands. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning final resolution depends on actual recorded conditions rather than forecasts, and any discrepancies between Wunderground's database and other weather stations become irrelevant once the official reading is logged.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.