Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its official daily high temperature, which this market resolves into specific degree brackets. Today, Polymarket prices the contract with "25°C" as the frontrunner at 59%, while "26°C" holds 46% and "27°C" sits at 26%, indicating the crowd expects a warm but not extreme summer day. The current 0% probability for a "YES" outcome on any specific unlisted range reflects the market's tight focus on these three leading brackets, driven by on-chain conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network.

Historical July data for Munich frames these probabilities, with average highs ranging from 72°F to 75°F (22°C to 24°C) and rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C), though recent records show Germany hitting 41.3°C in June 2026. AccuWeather forecasts July 2026 highs between 69°F and 91°F (20°C to 33°C), with an average of 77°F (25°C), aligning closely with the market's top pick. This consistency between long-term averages and current forecasts suggests the 59% chance for 25°C is well-founded, as temperatures rarely stray far from this mean in Bavaria during mid-summer.

Traders should monitor the Met Office forecast for Munich, which predicts a maximum of 25°C today and 27°C on Friday 10 July, alongside any sudden shifts in regional cloud cover or wind patterns that could alter the daily peak. The resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the first data point for 9 July only after the settlement window closes, meaning real-time updates from local weather stations will be the primary catalyst for price movements. While no specific weather announcements are imminent, the dependency on precise meteorological recording means that any deviation from the 25°C average could rapidly shift liquidity between the 25°C and 26°C brackets.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.