Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing a 0% probability that the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026 will fall within a specific range, suggesting traders currently view that outcome as implausible or are simply not yet engaged with this contract. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at LaGuardia—the primary station for New York City weather records—rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when hourly readings occasionally diverge from published daily highs. On Polygon, this conditional token trades against USDC, with settlement occurring immediately after the National Weather Service and Weather Underground publish their 11 August observations.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia cluster around a mean high of 27–28°C (81–82°F), though the range spans from lows near 19°C to extremes exceeding 32°C during heat waves. The summer of 2024 saw multiple days above 30°C in early August, whilst 2023 remained cooler. Current climate patterns and seasonal forecasting models will become actionable data points as summer 2026 approaches; the National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days ahead, which traders should monitor from late July onwards. Any Atlantic hurricane activity or unusual upper-atmosphere blocking patterns in early August could shift temperature expectations materially, though such forecasts remain highly uncertain at the two-year horizon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.