Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia temperature contract at 0% YES, even though the real-world setup looks like a fairly ordinary mid-August New York afternoon, with official forecasts clustering around the low to mid-80s Fahrenheit and observed highs at LaGuardia already running in that range. The contract settles from the highest value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for 15 August 2026, so the practical question is not whether the day felt hot, but whether the recorded peak lands inside the market’s chosen temperature band.

For context, LaGuardia’s climatological maximum for 15 August is 83°F, with the NWS daily climate report showing an observed high of 83°F for the date and a long-run record of 97°F. That sits close to private-sector forecast guidance calling for roughly 82°F to 84°F, which is the sort of setup that usually keeps the upper bins alive but leaves the exact bracket sensitive to the day’s timing, cloud cover and any late-afternoon uptick. In Polymarket terms, these are USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price should track the probability that the recorded station high clears the relevant range rather than the headline forecast alone.

The main catalysts are late observations and any revisions to the station record before the resolution window closes. The market description makes clear that the Daily Observations table is the primary source, not the summary high-and-low panel, so traders will be watching the LaGuardia station feed for the final published maximum and any data corrections. If showers or a brief thunderstorm suppress the peak, the lower range can remain in play; if sunshine persists through the afternoon, the outcome tends to migrate towards the hotter bins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.