Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at a muted level, with the market assigning only a small chance to the hotter bins and showing 0% for a yes outcome in the crowd-implied view. That matters because the contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in Fahrenheit, with traders on Polygon holding conditional tokens funded in USDC, so the live price reflects how the market is balancing a specific station reading rather than a generic New York City forecast.

For context, New York in early August usually sits in the warm, summer-season range, but the city has already seen sharp heat this summer: New York reached 100°F on 2 July, its hottest day in nearly 14 years, and Bloomberg reported “110F real feel” conditions during the same heat episode.[6][9] That kind of recent extreme gives a useful frame for reading the market, but LaGuardia can diverge from Central Park because airport temperatures often run a little different from inland city readings, especially when sea breezes or storm outflows are involved.[3][18]

The main catalysts are the hour-by-hour forecast path into the late-morning settlement window, any afternoon convection or cloud cover that caps the day’s peak, and whether a late surge of hot air arrives before noon UTC. Traders should also watch the resolution source itself: Wunderground’s LaGuardia history page is the final arbiter, so the relevant number is the day’s recorded high there, not a forecasted citywide maximum.[3] With the market resolved on-chain, the practical question is whether the station reaches a high enough printed value before the settlement cut-off to move the correct temperature band into view.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.