Highest temperature in NYC on August 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at 0% YES, which reflects the view that LaGuardia’s highest NOAA temperature on 27 August will land outside the yes-eligible range. The market settles on the highest reading in NOAA’s hourly data for KLGA, with the first datapoint for the following day used to close the window, and later revisions ignored once that next-day record is published. That makes the live hourly feed more important than any headline forecast because the outcome is determined by the recorded station maximum, not New York City averages or apparent temperature.

The comparable read-through is that late-August LaGuardia highs can still lift into the upper 70s or low 80s, but rainy, cloudy setups often cap the day well below the sort of readings that drive a higher band. Current local reporting for 27 August pointed to showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy conditions, and highs in the low 80s at LGA, while the National Weather Service also had flood watch and severe thunderstorm watch coverage across parts of the city that day. In practice, that combination usually compresses the upside on the station max and keeps the conditional token price anchored unless the afternoon clears more than expected.

The main catalysts are the hourly NOAA observations from KLGA, plus any short-term changes in storm timing, cloud cover, and wind direction that could briefly spike the temperature before rain moves in. Traders on Polygon should watch the settlement sequence, since the USDC-backed conditional tokens are only as good as the final NOAA print within the window; if NOAA data were missing, Weather Underground would become the back-up source. Recent local forecasts and warnings around the city’s flood and thunderstorm risk are the nearest market-moving inputs, because they directly affect whether the station can realise a higher daily maximum before the clock rolls.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.