Highest temperature in NYC on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which on the chain means no one is paying up for the relevant USDC conditional token outcome to land in the winning range. The market settles off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for KLGA, not the summary high/low box, so the practical question for traders is whether the station’s recorded maximum on 8 August 2026 landed inside the listed band before the settlement cut-off.

That zero reading is best read against the fact that New York City has already seen a notably warm August setup, with WeatherSpark showing KLGA around 89.1°F in the late afternoon on 8 August and AccuWeather’s monthly view putting the city near 89–91°F around the same period.[2][1] Polymarket’s own market page indicates the contract had effectively narrowed to the top outcome by the close of trading, while a separate NY weather market on the platform shows how quickly these contracts can compress once the observed station data is clearly in range.[3] For a user buying conditional tokens, that matters because the final print at LaGuardia, not a citywide average or nearby gauge, determines redemption value.[3][10]

The main catalyst is the publication of the final Weather Underground daily observation for KLGA, including any late updates before the first datapoint for 9 August is posted, because Polymarket’s resolution language says revisions within the window still count.[3] Traders should also watch National Weather Service local forecast updates and any storm timing, as convective bursts can cap the day’s maximum early or push it higher before cloud and rain arrive; the NWS had New York at 79°F after the evening update on 8 August, but that is only context, not the settlement source.[6] On Polymarket, the decisive mechanics are still simple: one USDC-backed position, one Polygon-settled outcome, and one station record at KLGA.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.