Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia Airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the current on-chain market view is that none of the listed Fahrenheit bins will resolve to the day’s highest reading. On Polymarket, traders post USDC on Polygon against conditional tokens, and settlement here will follow the Wunderground **Daily Observations** entry for KLGA rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure. That distinction matters because a contract can only resolve on the recorded maximum in the observations table, and any late revision before the next day’s first datapoint can still change the outcome.

The closest comparable read is the broader New York City summer temperature profile: late-summer highs around 90°F are common enough that Polymarket’s own market page had previously concentrated liquidity in the 90-91°F and 92-93°F ranges, while recent public forecast products also pointed to a near-90°F day for 9 August. WeatherSpark’s KLGA report on the afternoon of 9 August already showed 88.0°F with a 6-hour high of 89.1°F, which is consistent with a warm but not extreme setup. For traders, the practical check is whether the final Wunderground daily maximum lands just below or above the market’s active bracket, because a single degree can move resolution between adjacent outcomes.

Catalysts are straightforward: monitor the official LaGuardia observations feed on Wunderground, any National Weather Service updates affecting New York City heat, and the timing of the first 10 August datapoint that ends the revision window. The Polymarket market page notes that revisions count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late station edits are the key dependency rather than headlines alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.