Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport will determine whether this Polymarket contract resolves YES or NO, with the crowd currently pricing the YES outcome at 0%. The market settles on the Fahrenheit reading from Wunderground for KLGA, locking in USDC payouts on Polygon once the conditional tokens resolve after the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Historical context makes the 0% pricing stark: LaGuardia hit 104°F on 4 July 2026, shattering a 60-year record and marking the East Coast’s most severe heatwave, with 29 fatalities in New Jersey alone[1]. That event saw midnight temperatures reach 94°F, the highest ever recorded at the station, while the all-time KLGA peak stands at 107°F[2][10]. Given July 2026’s unprecedented heat corridor, a 104°F+ reading on 10 July is plausible, yet the market’s zero probability suggests traders expect a cooldown or believe the date falls outside the heatwave’s peak window.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily KLGA almanacs and Wunderground’s real-time KLGA history page for the official 10 July high[1][8]. No scheduled announcements are pending, but the resolution depends entirely on the single daily maximum recorded at KLGA, with no re-opening clause. The heatwave’s persistence into mid-July, as seen in 4–5 July records, remains the key variable; if temperatures dip below 90°F by 10 July, the 0% price may hold, but any spike above 100°F would invalidate the current consensus[3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.