Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is bracing for a significant heatwave in early July 2026, with AccuWeather forecasting highs of 100°F on Thursday and Friday, creating a humid environment that feels closer to 110°F [3]. This extreme thermal activity frames the current pricing on Polymarket, where the contract for the highest temperature on 14 July 2026 at LaGuardia Airport shows a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, despite the market favouring a 96–97°F range at 54% and a 94–95°F range at 32% [1]. The zero probability likely reflects a specific binary condition in the contract not fully detailed here, or a market consensus that the peak heat will occur slightly before the settlement date, leaving the 14th cooler than the preceding days.

Historical July data for NYC supports the expectation of temperatures hovering near 34°C (93°F), cooling to 19°C (66°F) after sunset, which aligns with the frontrunner outcomes on the on-chain book [2]. Traders monitoring this USDC-denominated market on the Polygon network should watch the final days of the current four-day heatwave, as the forecast indicates Sunday will be the last day of elevated heat before storms bring temperatures back to normal by Monday [3]. The settlement depends entirely on the official record from Wunderground for the LaGuardia station, meaning any deviation from the forecasted drop in temperature after the heatwave ends will directly impact the conditional token valuations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.