Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026 will determine this market’s outcome, with the settlement relying on Wunderground’s daily data for KLGA. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% probability for a “YES” outcome, yet the frontrunner is the 86–87°F range, commanding 52% of the implied probability, while 88–89°F sits at 30% [1]. This distribution suggests traders are betting on a hot day, not a cool one, and the 0% figure likely reflects a binary option structure rather than a consensus that temperatures will be low.

Historical context frames this pricing: last week, July 2026 saw a record-breaking heatwave across the East Coast, with NYC, DC, and Atlantic City shattering temperature records that had stood for 14 to 154 years simultaneously [2]. Such extreme, corridor-wide heat events are rare but increasingly plausible under current climate trends, making the 86–89°F ranges statistically grounded rather than speculative. The market’s current 0% “YES” probability appears misaligned with this recent precedent unless the binary condition requires an outlier event beyond typical summer highs.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for NYC and any updates from Wunderground regarding station data integrity for KLGA. A sudden shift in the forecast—such as a cold front or cloud cover announcement—could rapidly alter the implied probabilities on-chain. Since settlement is conditional tokens on Polygon using USDC, liquidity depth and slippage will matter if a catalyst emerges late in the settlement window ending 2026-07-17T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.