Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's inability to settle on any single temperature bracket ahead of an event nearly two years distant. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are effectively holding USDC-denominated positions that will resolve to either full value or zero depending on which temperature band LaGuardia actually records that day.

New York City's July temperatures have historically clustered between 82°F and 92°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing into the mid-90s. The National Weather Service records show that in recent decades, LaGuardia has recorded July highs ranging from 77°F to 96°F, with the most common outcomes falling in the 85–90°F band. This historical distribution suggests certain temperature ranges are substantially more probable than others, yet the market's uniform 0% pricing indicates either liquidity constraints or genuine uncertainty about which specific brackets the market creator has defined.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal forecasts released in spring 2026, which typically provide directional guidance on whether a given summer will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift probabilities materially. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull for that specific date, making the source's availability and accuracy the only operational risk once the event occurs.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.