Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the 26 July New York City temperature contract with a **0% YES** crowd-implied probability, even though the live book is assigning most value to the middle summer band rather than an extreme outcome.[1] For a trader, that means the market is effectively saying the LaGuardia Airport Station peak will land somewhere in the ordinary daytime range that resolves the market, not in a clearly dislocated heat spike or a colder surprise.

The best comparison is with the contract’s own range structure: Polymarket’s public market page shows **84–85°F** as the leading outcome at **41%**, with **82–83°F** next at **36%**, which is a fairly concentrated distribution around the mid-80s.[1] That kind of positioning usually reflects a one-day summertime forecast where the ceiling matters more than the average. Since settlement uses the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia on the day, not the citywide feel or the morning low, the relevant question is whether the airport’s actual peak breaks out of that cluster or stays inside it.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual late-run weather inputs: updated National Weather Service guidance, any heat advisory or thunderstorm timing changes, and the day-of hourly profile that can shift the maximum by a degree or two. The contract settles against Wunderground’s LaGuardia history page, so revisions to the station’s observed high are the key mechanical dependency, while the on-chain position itself is just USDC exposure on Polygon through conditional tokens. A forecast path that keeps the afternoon capped near the low-to-mid 80s supports the current pricing more than a late surge in heat or a convective drop-off would.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.