Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia Airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently implying that traders see no live chance of a qualifying high on 30 July, even though settlement will depend on the final Wunderground reading at KLGA rather than broader New York City weather data. Because the event resolves off the **highest Fahrenheit temperature recorded during the day**, the contract is really a discrete weather print tied to the airport station, not a general forecast for Manhattan or Central Park.[4]

For framing, New York City has a credible summer history of triple-digit heat, which is why a zero-probability price is notable rather than impossible. Central Park reached 100°F on 3 July 2026, the first 100-degree reading there since 2012, and recent reporting also noted JFK hit 100°F that same day, showing that the region can still deliver extreme afternoon peaks even in a coastal setting.[17] Historical July 30 readings in the city have also produced very warm outcomes, including record-level highs in earlier years, which is the sort of background traders use when judging whether a late-July print might surprise.[2][3]

A trader should watch the afternoon forecast trend, airport-observation timing, and whether convective storms, sea breezes, or cloud cover limit the day’s peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the final Wunderground history entry for LaGuardia, since a brief spike can matter even if the rest of the day is cooler.[4] On-chain, the position settles through Polymarket’s USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, so the only thing that ultimately matters is which temperature range the recorded LaGuardia high lands in once the source data is finalised.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.