Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

A dangerous heatwave is currently intensifying across New York City and the broader East Coast, bringing scorching temperatures and oppressive humidity through 6 July 2026. On-chain, Polymarket prices this contract today with the 70–71°F range as the frontrunner at 75%, while the market assigns a 0% probability to any outcome above 74°F, despite the extreme conditions unfolding in reality[2]. This stark divergence between the abstract probability and the physical event defines the current trading landscape for conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network.

Historical precedent frames how to interpret this low probability for higher temperatures. LaGuardia Airport recently recorded its warmest midnight on record at 94°F, breaking the 2013 benchmark of 93°F, yet the market remains anchored to cooler bands[1]. While July 5 saw NYC reach a record high of 104°F, the current pricing suggests traders expect a rapid cooldown or significant cloud cover by the settlement window, ignoring the persistent heat dome that has kept overnight lows above 85°F[4].

Traders must monitor the immediate forecast for the heatwave’s duration, as experts predict temperatures may drop slightly by 7 July but remain warm and humid across the East Coast[4]. The primary catalyst is the official Wunderground reading for the highest temperature at LaGuardia, which will resolve the market regardless of the heat index spike or urban heat island effects currently intensifying city temperatures[4]. Any sudden shift in wind patterns or precipitation schedules could invalidate the current 70–71°F consensus, making the upcoming weather bulletins critical for on-chain positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.