Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the **28°C** bucket as the frontrunner for Paris on 1 August, with the market assigning it about **60%** and **29°C** next at **24%**. Because settlement is tied to the **Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station** reading on **Wunderground**, traders are effectively holding USDC-backed positions on which temperature band captures the day’s peak, with the outcome token redeemable through Polymarket’s conditional token structure on Polygon once the market resolves.[2]

That pricing sits comfortably within Paris’s August climate profile, where average highs are typically in the mid-20s Celsius and the city can move a few degrees either side depending on air mass and cloud cover.[1][18] Historical August records show that Paris can occasionally spike much higher, but those hotter days are outliers rather than the norm, which helps explain why a low-30s outcome is present but not dominant. The 0% crowd-implied probability on **YES** also looks more like a quirk of how the market is displayed than a genuine view that the event cannot settle, since the contract is plainly live and still tradeable.[2]

For catalysts, the main inputs are the **latest French and European forecast updates** in the final 24–72 hours, especially any shift in the strength, timing, or northward reach of a hot spell over northern France. Reuters reported in June that the French weather agency was seeing temperatures hitting record highs during the 2026 heatwave, underlining how quickly model consensus can move when blocking high pressure builds over France.[16] Traders should also watch for how rapidly the Paris-Le Bourget observation is revised before Wunderground publishes the first datapoint for 2 August, since Polymarket states that late revisions inside the market window are considered until that cutoff.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.