Highest temperature in Paris on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Paris’s top reading at **1% YES**, which on a USDC-settled, Polygon-based market means traders are assigning only a small chance that the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station prints a temperature in the relevant outcome range before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. Because the contract resolves from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low, the live intraday path matters more than a rounded headline figure: a brief spike, if recorded in the observations table, can decide the market even if the day’s summary looks lower.

That low price sits against a summer context in which Paris has already been through exceptional heat in 2026. Weather and climate trackers show very hot readings earlier in August, including a peak of **36.4°C on 3 August** in Paris monitoring data, while French media reported that the weekend of **8–9 August** could be warmer and largely sunny, with temperatures expected to rise to around **30°C or more**. For Polymarket users, the comparison is straightforward: contracts on late-summer Paris heat can reprice quickly when forecasts converge on a hotter afternoon, but they can also stay depressed if cloud cover, showers or a maritime breeze caps the maximum.

The key catalysts are the day’s local forecast updates, the timing of the warmest part of the afternoon in Paris, and whether Weather Underground posts a higher final observation before the first datapoint for 10 August is published. Traders watching the contract should focus on any last-mile forecast revisions from major weather services and on the station-specific readings, since the market’s settlement is tied to that Paris-Le Bourget record rather than a city-wide average. Once the observation window closes and the relevant Weather Underground table is fixed, the conditional tokens redeem against the final published range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.