Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is set to record its highest temperature for 12 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at 0% despite the settlement window closing just hours away. On Polymarket, traders are locking USDC into conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where the zero probability suggests the crowd expects temperatures to fall below the lowest defined range in the contract’s resolution tiers. This pricing implies a belief that the day will remain cool relative to historical July extremes, even as the clock ticks toward final settlement.

Historically, Paris July highs average 26°C, but the range spans 20°C to 43°C, with the 43°C peak recorded in 2019 standing as the monthly record since 1991[1]. Recent years show warming trends, with average highs rising 1–2°F over the past decade[1]. However, the 0% market price contradicts the typical volatility of mid-July heat, where days frequently exceed 30°C and heatwaves can push temperatures past 35°C[4]. The absence of YES bids suggests traders are either misreading the contract’s range thresholds or reacting to a specific forecast indicating unusually mild conditions for this date.

Traders should monitor real-time data from Wunderground’s Paris-Le Bourget station, the official resolution source, as final readings will determine settlement[1]. No major weather announcements are pending, but the lack of heatwave alerts in France’s recent June record—where 35.7°C was noted south of London—may signal a cooler pattern persisting into July[7]. With settlement imminent, liquidity will likely thin, and any late spike in temperature could create sharp price dislocations before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.