Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is set to record its highest temperature for 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at just 1%. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on the Polygon network using USDC, meaning traders can buy or sell exposure to specific temperature ranges without holding the underlying asset. The contract resolves strictly on data from Wunderground for the Paris-Le Bourget station, locking in the Celsius reading at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

Historical extremes suggest the current 1% probability is conservative given recent French heatwaves. In July 2019, Paris hit 42.4°C, while June 2022 saw record-breaking temperatures across the country, with Landes reaching 44.3°C during a brutal European heatwave [2][3][8]. Daily highs in Paris during July typically range between 23°C and 25°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, but the frequency of extreme heat events has increased significantly over the last decade [1].

Traders should monitor the Meteo-France heatwave bulletins and the European Heatwatch Network for real-time alerts as the settlement window approaches. A recent red heat alert issued for France in June 2026 underscores the volatility of summer temperatures, with officials warning of record-breaking nights and days [9]. Since the resolution depends entirely on the single highest reading at Paris-Le Bourget, any sudden spike in regional temperatures could rapidly shift the implied probability from its current low baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.