Highest temperature in Paris on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will record its peak temperature for 14 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market resolving based on the highest degree Celsius reading for that day. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades with a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting a consensus that the specific condition tied to that binary option is virtually impossible. The real pricing action lies in the range distribution: 34°C is the frontrunner at 47%, while 35°C sits close behind at 43%, indicating traders expect a hot midsummer day but not an extreme outlier.

Historical mid-July heat in Paris typically clusters between 30°C and 36°C, with 34°C and 35°C appearing frequently in recent warm spells. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the binary “YES” aligns with this pattern, as the market has effectively priced out any scenario where the temperature falls outside the dominant 34–35°C band. On-chain, these positions are settled in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity flows directly into the specific temperature ranges rather than a simple yes/no bet.

Traders should monitor the daily weather forecast for the Paris region released by Météo-France, particularly the 06:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC model updates, which refine high-temperature predictions for the coming days. A sudden shift in the European heat dome or an unexpected cloud cover event could alter the 34°C/35°C split before the settlement window closes at 2026-07-14T12:00:00Z. No official announcements are scheduled, but real-time Wunderground data for Paris-Le Bourget will be the sole resolution source, making live temperature tracking essential for position management.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.