Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is about to endure an intense heatwave with temperatures forecast to soar between 36°C and 39°C, potentially climbing as high as 40°C on some afternoons, a level the city has only reached a few times historically[4]. This extreme event frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome on the Polymarket contract, as traders are pricing in a near-certain breach of typical mid-July averages which usually sit around 25°C to 30°C[1][2]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, reflect this consensus that the highest temperature at Paris-Le Bourget will fall into a specific high-range bracket rather than the lower options currently ignored by the market.

Historical data from early July 2026 shows a peak near 36°C on Tuesday, with values hovering around 35°C on Wednesday, establishing a precedent for the current heat spike[5]. Traders should monitor the arrival of cooler Atlantic air expected by the end of the week, which forecasters believe will drop temperatures back below 30°C and alter the settlement outcome[4]. The resolution depends entirely on the Wunderground record for Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, meaning any deviation in the forecasted peak before the 2026-07-16 settlement window could shift the conditional token pricing significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.