Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is the key real-world reference point here: Polymarket is currently split between **25°C** and **26°C**, with each outcome priced at 50% on-chain in **USDC** via **Polygon** conditional tokens.[1] That pricing implies the market is treating a high-20s summer afternoon in the capital as the most likely settlement band, while the resolution will depend specifically on the highest temperature logged at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station on 22 July 2026, not on citywide averages or forecasts.[1]

For context, July highs in Paris are often close to the mid-20s Celsius, so a contract centred on 25°C and 26°C is broadly consistent with a normal warm-season range rather than an extreme heat setup. The current 0% headline probability for **YES** reflects the fact that the market is not a binary event contract but a range-based one, so traders are really pricing the probability distribution across possible temperature brackets rather than an all-or-nothing outcome.[1]

The main catalysts are weather-model updates and any shift in local conditions that could push the day’s maximum one degree either side of the current midpoint. Traders watching this market will normally track the London- and Paris-area forecast runs, cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a late-afternoon heat spike develops, because the settlement source is the recorded maximum from Wunderground rather than a forecast service.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.