Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris temperature contract at **25°C** on the day, with that outcome at **100%** and every lower bucket at **0%**. On-chain, that means USDC locked into conditional tokens on Polygon is already overwhelmingly assigned to the 25°C range, so the market is effectively treating a modest late-July high at Paris-Le Bourget as the settled expectation rather than a live weather bet.

That pricing sits comfortably inside the usual July pattern for Paris, where typical highs are around **26°C** and lows near **16°C**. Even so, forecasts for Paris in early July 2026 pointed to a renewed hot spell with highs in the **low-to-mid 30s**, showing how quickly continental summer heat can alter the upper tail of the distribution when a ridge builds over northern France.[2][3][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that matter on the Wunderground settlement feed: the day’s temperature evolution at **Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station**, especially any midday heat spike before the settlement window closes. The contract resolves on the **highest observed temperature** for 23 July, so the relevant driver is not the evening finish but whether any forecast update, local convective burst, or heat alert keeps the day below or above the 25°C band. Polymarket’s current 100% pricing suggests little spread remains for new information to move.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.