Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 34°C peak at 90% probability, implying a near-zero chance of any higher range. This on-chain bet, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a crowd consensus that the day will not breach the 34°C threshold despite the broader European heat context.

Historical precedents from the 2026 European heatwaves frame this probability; Météo-France recorded France’s hottest day on 23 June with temperatures reaching 44.3°C in Pissos, while Paris itself saw peaks near 41°C during the same period [5][10]. However, recent forecasts suggest a relative drop in intensity by late June, with temperatures stabilising between 34°C and 38°C across the Paris region before the summer solstice, making a 34°C cap plausible if the heatwave does not reignite [1].

Traders should monitor the scheduled arrival of the second heatwave expected to settle over mainland France from 17 June, with potential peaks of 40°C forecast for the Paris region by Sunday [1]. The critical dependency is the influx of warm air from North Africa, which could push temperatures beyond the current 34°C frontrunner if the forecasted 40°C peak materialises on 6 July [1]. Recent weather alerts for early July confirm strong heatwave building with temperatures rising well above seasonal averages, reaching 36°C to 37°C in Paris [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.