Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 at the International Airport Station will determine this market’s outcome, with the current Polymarket contract pricing the 74–75°F range at 100% probability and all other ranges, including any below 69°F, at 0% [1]. This near-certainty reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on Polygon, where USDC liquidity has concentrated almost entirely on the mid-range outcome, leaving no meaningful implied probability for extreme lows or highs.

Historically, July temperatures at KSFO typically cluster between 70°F and 76°F, with the 2024 and 2025 summers showing similar stability despite regional cooling trends in the Bay Area [2]. The current 0% probability for “69°F or below” aligns with this pattern, as even the chilly summer of 2024, which broke several records for low temperatures, still recorded highs above 70°F on mid-July days.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s weekly high-pressure forecasts for the North Pacific, as a shift could allow storm systems to push south and lower temperatures unexpectedly [2]. No immediate announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on Wunderground’s daily KSFO record means any data gap or station anomaly could delay settlement. The market’s tight pricing suggests limited upside for contrarian positions unless a significant atmospheric shift occurs before the 12 July settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.