Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 14 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for the YES outcome on any specific range, despite the frontrunner “78–79°F” commanding 93% implied probability across the conditional tokens [1]. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy or sell these outcome shares, locking in exposure to the Wunderground-recorded peak at KSFO before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026 [1].

Historically, July in San Francisco is mild, with typical highs near 21°C (70°F) and cool nights around 13°C (55°F), making extreme heat rare but not impossible [2]. The current 93% crowd-implied probability for 78–79°F suggests the market anticipates a warm anomaly above the seasonal norm, yet the 0% YES price on the binary framing likely reflects a mismatch in how the question is posed versus the multi-outcome distribution traders are actually pricing [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s high-pressure forecasts for the Bay Area, as sustained ridging can deflect marine cooling and push temperatures toward the 78–79°F range [2]. Recent reports note that unusual high-pressure patterns have already broken several Bay Area temperature records during this summer, hinting at a catalyst for hotter-than-average conditions [3]. Watch for daily Wunderground updates for KSFO as the day approaches, since the resolution source is strictly the highest temperature recorded for all times on 14 July at that station [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.