Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the market’s view that the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold in question. This pricing is settled on-chain using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine the payout based on the final resolution from Wunderground.

Historically, July is São Paulo’s coldest month, with average highs around 22°C (72°F) and lows near 13°C (56°F)[4]. While Brazil recently recorded its national peak of 44.8°C during a stifling heatwave, such extremes are rare in São Paulo during winter months[1]. The city’s climate change severity score remains high, yet July temperatures have consistently stayed modest over the past 17 years, with only a 4.1% improvement in climate metrics[2]. This pattern suggests the current 0% probability is well-calibrated against comparable seasonal data.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) for any unexpected heatwave announcements ahead of 6 July. Recent reports indicate Rio de Janeiro experienced a heat index of 52.7°C, but such conditions have not yet extended to São Paulo in July[6]. Additionally, check INMET’s weekly forecast schedules, as sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter temperature outcomes. No major climate disruptions are currently forecast, but real-time dependencies on regional atmospheric conditions remain critical for accurate trading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.