Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 11 August 2026, measured at the official meteorological station and reported through Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either technical settlement issues or minimal liquidity in USDC conditional tokens at present. Resolution hinges on the specific data point from Incheon's station rather than broader Seoul readings, a distinction that matters given microclimatic variations across the metropolitan area.

August temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, with historical records showing occasional excursions above 33°C during heat waves. The station's 30-year average high for mid-August sits near 29°C, though the 2018 heat wave pushed daily maxima above 34°C across multiple days in the region. These precedents establish the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position sizing, particularly for the higher temperature brackets that currently show zero implied probability despite non-negligible historical occurrence.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any heat wave advisories issued in late July 2026, as these typically precede anomalous August temperatures by 7–14 days. Atmospheric patterns favouring high pressure systems over the Korean peninsula—particularly blocking highs that stall weather systems—have historically driven the extreme readings that would settle the upper ranges. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 August, requiring traders to account for any timezone conversion between Incheon local time and the market's closing mechanics.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.