Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer weather on 12 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's meteorological station, resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either minimal trading activity or extreme uncertainty about settlement mechanics. USDC conditional tokens on Polygon currently trade at prices implying traders expect the actual high to fall outside all listed ranges, though this may reflect liquidity constraints rather than genuine forecasting conviction.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show consistent patterns useful for calibration. Over the past decade, daily highs in mid-August have ranged from 28°C to 34°C, with the station recording 33.5°C on 12 August 2019 and 31.2°C on the same date in 2023. The Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlook for summer 2026 will be published in late June, potentially shifting market probabilities once forecasters issue guidance on whether the season tracks warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal of approximately 29°C for this period.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August, as typhoons can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean Peninsula typically drive peaks above 33°C. The KMA's weekly forecasts become actionable from late July onwards. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's Daily Observations extraction, making data source verification critical before position entry.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.